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“Thirdwavedave”  often remarked that Florida was “the center of the universe” because so much that happens in the Sunshine State makes national headlines and has a tremendous impact on national politics. He was right.  Take the 2016 Presidential election for example…

Legal Insurrection has an interesting piece on Gov. Scott Walker’s comment that he might skip the 2016 Florida primary next March. He didn’t say he would, he just said he might.

The Legal Insurrection article analyzes his comment in the context of Florida’s geographic challenge and unique voter demographic.

Will Scott Walker Sit Out The Florida Primary?

…what will Florida voters think?

It’s worth the read.

Just as interesting and informative is THIS analysis of Florida’s 2016 primary posted at The Conservative Treehouse.  Great insight.

Excerpt:

Florida is big in both geography and diversity of opinion. At 800 miles tip to stem it takes a long time to campaign inside Florida and the apparatus within the state must be top shelf.

This is a financial and logistical nightmare for any campaign not prepared. Such a construct favors the establishment from the outset, so any candidate not part of the GOPe national apparatus will have a tough time.

You might remember that strong candidate, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, emphasized Florida 100% in his 2008 GOP primary bid. But even with his approach to focus -almost exclusively- on Florida, he failed. Although most of that failure was due to the Florida economy in absolute freefall (turning attention away from national security) his failure in Florida reflects a reality; Florida can be, and is, exhausting for a candidate in numerous ways – and it is a financial bottomless pit.

The 2016 establishment GOPe know they will hold favor in the Miami-Dade area (South East) where there is a large population. The decepticons also know the Panhandle (NW) is too conservative, but fortunately not population dense.

The GOPe will spend most of their efforts in the I-4 corridor between Tampa (large population) and Orlando (another large population) – with less, but still considerable, effort in the Jacksonville/Tallahassee market.

Florida costs BIG BUCKS, but also holds BIG BUCKS. Events in the Country Club cocktail class areas will yield huge financial fundraisers. However, the mindset within those Bentley polished communities, filled with unused marble swimming pools, is that no-one likes to be on the losing side. Having been their Governor, Jeb already has all the GOPe constructs to succeed.

Oh yeah, and… Mr. Jeb also has a Latino wife, family, and speaks fluent Spanish. “Fluent” as in “better than” Marco Rubio….

The thought of Scott Walker and/or Ted Cruz vs. Jeb Bush in Florida is a formidable exercise. For all of the aforementioned reasons Jeb Bush holds an arguably solid advantage. He can speak Spanish at outside events in Miami-Dade, Tampa and Orlando, and still raise his pinkie higher at the 5:00pm cocktail party hour.

One can easily see the GOPe winning the South-East (Miami Dade), South-West (Naples/Ft. Myers), West/Center (Tampa/St. Pete to Orlando) and North East (Tallahassee/Jacksonville down to Daytona) and only losing the North West and North Center.

I predict that prior to Florida Chris Christie will be the attack dog for Jeb Bush as Christie positions himself favorably with the GOP apparatus. Similarly, when the race reaches Florida Marco Rubio will take that role.

Yes, Rubio will run in 2016 also, {ADD: as predicted he did}  but he’ll be the type of candidate perfect for the GOPe plan. Rubio would split the Walker/Cruz constituents and take 3rd in Iowa, 2nd(ish) in New Hampshire, and skewer the field with a possible win in South Carolina.

This will position Rubio to be the ultimate decision-maker/power-broker in Florida AND provides him the ultimate opportunity to repay his friend, colleague and father-like mentor, Jeb Bush.

BOOM – primary over.

#1 Iowa = Walker/Cruz, Rubio, Bush

#2 New Hampshire = Rubio/Walker, Bush, Cruz

#3 South Carolina = Rubio/Walker, Bush, Cruz

#4 Florida = Bush/Rubio, Walker, Cruz… field.

DETAILS:

→ Exiting Iowa the GOPe will work diligently to continue the Ted Cruz too polarizing message. They’ll want to keep him in the race, but only so that folks will be torn away from Walker. The media will be more than happy to assist in selling a Polarizing Ted Cruz.

→ Entering New Hampshire the GOPe will leverage Rubio to tamp down Walker and they’ll attack Walker as unintellectual, not smart enough. The GOPe will use Rubio to ‘Out-Intellect’ Walker and make Walker appear small, over-his-head. The media will be more than happy to assist.

→ Exiting Hew Hampshire both Walker and Cruz will be damaged goods. Both Campaigns physically, emotionally and financially being drained from the onslaught. Enter Chris Christie to finish them off and continue the marginalization.

→ Entering South Carolina Nikki Haley will be leveraged by the GOPe with a possible VP spot on Team Jeb. The goal is to keep her from endorsing Walker or Cruz and rescuing their now exhausted campaigns. If she wants to endorse Rubio, fine. If she wants to endorse Jeb, even better. If Haley endorses Rubio that will only aide Bush when Rubio endorses him later.

→ Exiting South Carolina Bush and Rubio enter their massive home state with friendly and large political constructs already in place. They tour the state as their campaigns talk to each other insure their paths don’t cross, and they don’t hit the same donors too closely together. The airwave campaign is massive and $$$$$$$$. Cruz/Walker or Walker/Cruz are ground up like cornmeal for cornbread, and exhausted as donors begin to worry if they stand a chance.

√ Exiting Florida the Decepticon GOPe machine has ground-up their opposition and Bush / Rubio teams enter negotiations to divide up the spoils in what they both hope will be another Bush administration.

…. and so it goes.

rubio-bush

Things could be different than this; however, it would take different actions than are currently visible to avoid it – and highly doubtful.

If we are to accept history, and also openly accept what is evident, well, this is what you get:

clinton-bush

In case you missed the link way above…

Will Scott Walker Sit Out The Florida Primary?

Posted: 27 May 2015

Florida will be (as it has been) a pivotal state in the 2016 general election. Its 29 electoral votes will loom large in the race to reach 270—but how much will it matter in the GOP primary? With Florida favorites Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio expected to compete for most of the votes, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (who has yet to officially declare his candidacy) has left the door open to skipping the Florida primary:

Speaking to conservative radio host Laura Ingraham, Walker said if he does jump in the 2016 race, “I don’t think there’s a state out there we wouldn’t play in.”

“Other than, maybe, Florida, where Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are … in some of the polls, essentially tied,” he said, naming the former governor and current senator who are headed down a collision course in their home state’s primary this cycle.

Walker may have a point, but it seems kind of odd that he would announce something like this with nearly eight months before the first primary in 2016. In addition, the schedule is different this time around:

Florida played a pivotal role in the 2012 GOP nominating contest, giving Mitt Romney a boost that solidified his frontrunner status in the nominating fight. The state’s 2016 primary is scheduled for much later, in mid-March, the earliest date allowed by the Republican National Committee for states to allocate its delegates on a winner-take-all basis.

In 2012 the primary was on January 31. This year it is on March 15. Primaries often become a matter of momentum and Walker can’t say for sure Jeb or Rubio will still be in the race by March 15, 2016.

Why concede anything at this point? Voters are drawn to candidates who project confidence (not arrogance) and this makes it look like Walker doesn’t want to waste time. Also, knowing how the press reacts, Walker will now have to face questions about this.

In addition, what will Florida voters think? They’re fickle, and Walker’s comments could be construed as, “I’m not going to bother.”

Time will tell. That said, the race is still at a very early stage. Walker should concern himself more with the short term and worry about Florida when he sees what the field looks like at the end of January.

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